Probabilities with Ralph Week 1

Probabilities with Ralph Week 1

Each week Ralphy will look at the AFL betting markets and combine where he sees some value and/or trading opportunities for having a punt, with the AFL insights that Shane and James provide in their tipping on the podcast.

He will outlay a total of $20 on any game that he likes, and at the end of the year any/all profit will be donated to charities that we choose to.

We underline:

a/ We are independent of any wagering company association
b/ We are providing ideas not investment advice.
c/ We hope you don’t outlay at all if you can’t afford to lose, and whatever you do outlay urge that you do so responsibly and within your means (hence the small $20 outlays)

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Probabilities with Ralph Week 1

So I scan the AFL betting markets for Round 1 looking for value with 2 main mindsets:

1/ Round 1 always throws up upsets
2/ I’m a believer in the theory put forward by former Wallaby Ben Darwin that cohesion is underrated in world sport and as such as wary of the “batch of recruits” sides and particularly early in the season

The 3 potential opportunities that caught my eye then were Carlton to beat Richmond, Fremantle to beat Port and Brisbane Lions to beat St Kilda.

Hirdy and Crawf were both so bullish about the Saints, and particularly at Etihad dismissive of the Lions knocking them off, that I was left with two games.

What I need to underline is that I definitely don’t expect Carlton to beat Richmond, and am only luke warm that the Dockers are a genuine winning chance over the Power.

So why are they the betting matches?

Trading!

At Monday time of writing Carlton are around $1:20 and Port Adelaide $1:27.

So that means I can outlay $20 to possibly win $100 by LAYING Richmond on Betfair and $20 to possibly win $75 LAYING Port Adelaide.

Remember I’m looking at the boys AFL expertise and combining it with how markets are likely to move.

In the case of the first game both Shane and James said they expect Carlton to take it right up to Richmond for at least the first half, as their current asset as they develop as a young team under Bolton is defensive discipline, (cohesion!) meaning they should be able to keep it tight for at least a half.

Now do you think at half time if Richmond are leading by less than 15 points, punters who took just $1:20 – meaning for every $100 you outlay, you’re only winning $20 if you get it right – would be getting nervous? I do!

That would mean at half time they’re better odds than $1:20.

When I touched on this during the pod, Hirdy thought I was talking left handed Cantonese braille, until I boiled it down to a stockmarket trading analogy, and he was – sort of! – with me.

In share terms I’m “selling” Richmond at $1:20 with the intention of “buying” them at $1:30 or better at half time if the scores are close as the boys expect.

With Port I’m more open and may “let it run” a bit, as all three of us think that both Fremantle could be underrated by the market/general public early in the season with Ross Lyon having Fyfe and Sandilands added to a young group that he got to put good game time into last year (cohesion!) along with good signs through the JLT Series.

Conversely while the Power have some good recruits on paper in Watts, Motlop, Rockcliffe etc, they require instant cohesion on match day. Yes there’s a risk Port with their home crowd behind them “jump” the Dockers, but at $1:27 the margin for error is small for the “buyers” and big for the “sellers” hence being on the side of the latter.

If it’s close at half time I’ll “sell” Port and if Freo are somehow on top, I’ll Let It Ride

Responsibly of course!

Ralphy

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz’s horseracing analysis service is racetrackralphy.com.au

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