Probabilities Week 9

Each week Ralphy will look at the AFL betting markets and combine where he sees some value and/or trading opportunities for having a punt, with the AFL insights that Shane and James provide in their tipping on the podcast.

He will outlay a total of $20 on any game that he likes, and at the end of the year any/all profit will be donated to charities that we choose to.

We underline:

a/ We are independent of any wagering company association

b/ We are providing ideas not investment advice.

c/ We hope you don’t outlay at all if you can’t afford to lose, and whatever you do outlay urge that you do so responsibly and within your means (hence the small $20 outlays)

Probabilities Week 9

“Life wasn’t meant to be easy” is one of the more famous quotes attributed an Australian Prime Minster in the 1970s.

That came to mind last week when we needed first the Western Bulldogs against the Crows in the wet, and then Fremantle against the Swannies at the SCG to look winning chances at some stage, and while they both had plenty of the ball, what they did with it was more Malcolm Marshall than Malcolm Fraser with the difference being the great West Indian bowler was trying to get the ball to move all over the place.

Half way through the first quarter the Bulldogs were leading the inside 50s 12 to 7 and the disposal count 61 to 27

For zero goals

It was similar in Sydney with Fremantle having the first 3 inside 50s for zero goals and led the clearances by 3 half way through the first quarter.

So both sides turned up playing to be competitive, but weren’t on the scoreboard which is a rather important part of footy!

In horseracing parlance the expression is, operation was a success, but the patient died with no chance to trade out  with either

So from a head-wobbling $45:15 up a fortnight ago to -$34:85 with our backs to the wall

That was then. This is now.

1 roughy and it’s lay Collingwood at $1:47 against the Western Bulldogs to spend $40:


# Sick of away sides – no problem with the Bulldogs at Etihad

# Hirdy earlier this year spoke of a very wet ground NOT being a “flat/recovery problem” after Round 1 and note both the Suns and Kangas won Round 2 after playing in similar conditions to the Bulldogs in North Queensland.

# As stated above the Bulldogs got plenty of the ball, so now go to a dry deck and had won their previous 3 games

# The Bulldogs have won their last 5 games against Collingwood

# The Bulldogs have chosen to replace 3 players on form, Collingwood have lost Fasolo and Wells

# I’m not convinced the Pies form is “real”. Well beaten by Richmond and Geelong in the past month, narrow winners over Brisbane and beating St Kilda at the moment like they did last week doesn’t count.

I can see the Bulldogs taking the game right up to them and I like that opportunity to trade out from a probability perspective 

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz has the independent horseracing website with a special offer for his full Sndown analysis Saturday. Details to be explained via the free newsletter to registered customers 

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