Probabilities with Ralphy Week 5

Probabilities with Ralphy Week 5

Each week Ralphy will look at the AFL betting markets and combine where he sees some value and/or trading opportunities for having a punt, with the AFL insights that Shane and James provide in their tipping on the podcast.

He will outlay a total of $20 on any game that he likes, and at the end of the year any/all profit will be donated to charities that we choose to.

We underline:

a/ We are independent of any wagering company association

b/ We are providing ideas not investment advice.

c/ We hope you don’t outlay at all if you can’t afford to lose, and whatever you do outlay urge that you do so responsibly and within your means (hence the small $20 outlays)

Probabilities with Ralphy Week 5

The least painful lesson in this caper is the one after you haven’t lost, and in Round 4 we didn’t lose while I learnt a big lesson.

In a nutshell the first game I got wrong and the 2nd game I got right for the monster profit of 40 cents for the round. 

Hey when I started this I did say protecting capital is a bigger priority than winning!

In the first game where I laid GWS at $1:15, my thinking was right as the Dockers took the game right up to them – remember the mind set is to trade out during the game when/if things go our way – with a 19 to 11 lead at quarter time and GWS were out to $1:40.

There I could have taken profits backing them at the $1:40 and guaranteeing a profit.

However unlike say Carlton against Richmond in Round 1 or Collingwood in Round 3, where everything was going the Blues way on the scoreboard but it was unlikely to continue, there was a genuine chance Fremantle could cause an upset as they were playing very well.

But then…

The GWS kicked 4 goals to 2 in the 2nd quarter, and not only did three of those goals come from Dockers turnovers, but as you can see below, not just momentum was going their way, but everything was when they got a goal after the ball was clearly out of bounds

While 7 points of course isn’t insurmountable at half time, it’s then I needed to remember why the original odds for the Giants were $1:15 at game time.

Remember this isn’t “newspaper tipsters” hunches, but “the wisdom of the crowd” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd meaning “real” money and thus “real” opinions. 

So in this case the collective wisdom of people outlaying their own money was that if this game was played 100 times, GWS would win it 85 times.

Once you “add” the knowledge of them leading at home by 7 points half way through the match with momentum and opposition mistakes in their favour, it was the time to bail not be stubborn.

I didn’t bail and after they kicked the first goal of the 3rd quarter there was no opportunity to.

Minus $20

In the 2nd game it was pretty painless being on Geelong over 29.5 points against St Kilda

In fact the biggest mistake I made was backing early at $2:04 odds as it got out to $2:40 before the bounce, costing me $8.

Two cups of coffee!

Match 2 profit: $20:40 

Round 4 profit: 40 cents

Year to date: -90 cents

That was then this is now:

1/ Lay Sydney $1:40

While one of my themes is respecting home ground advantage as a genuine “thing”, another is reversion to the mean, and I’m working on the Crows playing to the Crows standard this week, after a rare poor home game against Collingwood. 

Their previous two games were a big win over reigning premier Richmond, and easy work against the Saints.

I’m not expecting any drop off from Sydney – how could you? – but if Adelaide simply play to Adelaide’s standard of both the previous fortnight and the previous season, then they’ll look like a winning chance of some stage in the game.

And I’ll trade out when/if that occurs

2/ Back GWS to win the flag at $7:20

Crawf’s premiership tip GWS are currently on top of the ladder with 3 wins and 1 loss and in the next two weeks play St Kilda at Etihad and then host Brisbane

Their current odds in those two games are $1:28 and $1:10 (TAB)

If they win those two games – not a big stretch of the imagination – then they’ll still be on top of the ladder with 5 wins and 1 loss.

They’ll most likely be shorter than $7:20 then and we’ll trade out

It’s sounds easy from a probability perspective. Let’s hope it is

Best of luck

Ralphy

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz’s independent horseracing analysis service is racetrackralphy.com.au and you can join Crawf and Hirdy for lunch at Crown on Friday May 11 with Ralphy via “Events” on his website

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