Probabilities with Ralphy Week 7

Each week Ralphy will look at the AFL betting markets and combine where he sees some value and/or trading opportunities for having a punt, with the AFL insights that Shane and James provide in their tipping on the podcast.

He will outlay a total of $20 on any game that he likes, and at the end of the year any/all profit will be donated to charities that we choose to.

We underline:

a/ We are independent of any wagering company association

b/ We are providing ideas not investment advice.

c/ We hope you don’t outlay at all if you can’t afford to lose, and whatever you do outlay urge that you do so responsibly and within your means (hence the small $20 outlays)

Probabilities Week 7

As a school kid in the 70 and 80s some banking bloke (probably after sharing some darts in the staff room with the teachers given the whiff of his brown cardigan) would “be invited” into the class room and hand out piggy banks and savings books, after we were told about the importance of regularly saving money, and using the “magic” of interest to get extra pocket money. 

If you saved $10, then at the end of the year it would become $11, as the 10% interest would kick in and Mr Ciggy Smelling Brown Cardigan man from the bank would magically put an extra dollar in your account.

From memory we had the Commonwealth Bank doing it and I guess were luckier than the poor buggers who “were looked after” by the “much better interest rates” that the Pyramid Building Society offered. 

Given what we did with that pocket money and bonus interest sheets once we discovered mixed drink UDL’s, then I guess it was eventually a nil sum game anyway. 

To 2018 and what’s the current at call rate in banks?

2% or if you shop around 2.5%?

For a whole year

Whoop De Do

So last week I asked why North gets “No respect” and laid Port Adelaide at $1:68 thinking it was way too short.

Before the game started lots of punters had agreed with me and Port Adelaide could be laid at $1:80

Meaning I could lay off and collect $4:25 for my $40 outlay AND HAVE ZERO CHANCE OF LOSING so I did

Now Hirdy reckons this isn’t in the spirit of the game

I reckon it was invoking the memory of Mr Brown cardigan and playing it nice and safe with a 10.6% return on my money

Over not 365 days, but 24 hours

Week 7 profit +$4:25

Year to date profit: $45:15

Plus still with $20 on GWS to win the flag at $7:20


That was then. This is now.


Game 1 and 2 combined (As they’re for the same starting point reason)

Lay Richmond $1:17 against Fremantle ($15)

Lay Collingwood $1:41 against Brisbane ($25)

Crawf has been big on treating this “block” of the four teams who played in the Anzac Day games as having a real recovery challenge that still hasn’t finished the week after they were asked to play two games in quick succession. 

Given Melbourne takes on St Kilda who’d I’d be physically ill if I backed and lost on, and the Bombers are underdogs anyway against Hawthorn, it leaves an opportunity to lay the two remaining sides.

To use a financial phrase Richmond are “priced to perfection” off three big wins over Brisbane, Melbourne and Collingwood with an assumption that they can play at this stratospheric level of rounds 4, 5 and 6 every week, and that Hardwick and his coaching team would want them to so far out from finals time. 

At some stage regardless of their acknowledged talent as reigning premiers some “reversion to the mean” is due, and particularly off those two hard games in 5 days.

Both Crawf and Hirdy said the games were very physical despite the late blow out, so while I’m not expecting Fremantle to win, I do expect them to take the game right up to the Tigers given they’re going well off a big win over the Bulldogs and close loss in the local Derby.

We only need Richmond to be a bit flat early to give us a chance to trade out as those who have taken the very short odds will run for the hills, while conversely even if they do get off to a good start, they’ll only move to $1:10 and we’ll take the few dollars loss.

Collingwood looks a different story up in Brisbane as the Lions are playing well without winning, are back at home with Luke Hodge and have a minimum of 3 forced changes.

So interstate travel and 3 games in 11 days against a young side with a sniff not only makes it a danger game of losing for mine, but at best looking vulnerable during the match to give us a chance of taking profits.

I like that from a probability perspective

Best of luck


“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz’s independent horseracing analysis service is and you can join Crawf and Hirdy for lunch at Crown on Friday May 11 with Ralphy via “Events” on his website NOTE BOOKINGS CLOSE MONDAY!!!

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