Probabilities with Ralphy Week 6

Each week Ralphy will look at the AFL betting markets and combine where he sees some value and/or trading opportunities for having a punt, with the AFL insights that Shane and James provide in their tipping on the podcast.

He will outlay a total of $20 on any game that he likes, and at the end of the year any/all profit will be donated to charities that we choose to.

We underline:

a/ We are independent of any wagering company association

b/ We are providing ideas not investment advice.

c/ We hope you don’t outlay at all if you can’t afford to lose, and whatever you do outlay urge that you do so responsibly and within your means (hence the small $20 outlays)

Probabilities with Ralphy Week 6

Like AC/DC we’re Back in Black after Tex Walker and the Crows reverted as we hoped back to their mean against the Swans, and we ended up with a $41:00 profit off a $49:97 outlay.

How do you outlay $49:97 when your maximum outlay is $20 per game?

Um… err…um…well you do so by outlaying an extra $29:97 (Betfair rounds it to the nearest $ depending on the risk in the case of a lay)

So why the extra outlay?

Well in Kenny Rogers song The Gambler he may have sang about holding them, folding them, walking away and running, but – always responsibly and within your means – there is also a time to double down on your opinion.

While I often write about my respect for the “Wisdom of Crowds” the reality is the crowd sometimes gets it totally wrong as the great movie about the sub prime mortgage collapse The Big Short showed brilliantly.

Sometimes “everyone” is wrong except you!

In that case, you can choose to back your judgement with a little extra and be either more right or more wrong.

What prompted the move, was that I laid the Swans at $1:40 as I advised risking $20, but the market then moved into $1:28 after 3 Crows were out injured including Rory Laird and Eddie Betts.

Now I may be silly, but I’m not deaf and Crawf and others spoke about how the Crows were carrying injuries. 

So regardless of the talent of those out, coach Don Pyke replaced injured players with “not injured” players.

So I laid Sydney for more at $1:28 to average the bet to $1:31.

When Jenkins goaled at the 10 min mark of the 2nd quarter to put Adelaide 22 points up, I pulled the trade when the Swans got out to $1:55, meaning either the $41:00 profit we made, or a $16:03 if Sydney fought back.

While letting it run would have seen a $161 profit, I’ve been assured by punters who are actually good at this and do it professionally – something I never have professed in this column – that “double green” (profit either way) is something to never be ashamed of compared to “what if” as the “if” can also include losing the lot.

Game 1 profit: $41

The other trade was GWS to win the flag at $7:20

Unfortunately they drew with the Saints and are now out to $9

I’ll let that stand this week as they’re hosting the Lions and then will reassess 

Year to date profit: $40:90

Plus: $20 on GWS to win the flag alive

That was then this is now

1/ Just the one trade this week ($40) with the quirky round including the two Anzac games teams “reversing” each other on the short break and that has me thinking those two games may see conditioning and luck with injuries more important than form/talent?

So it’s lay Port Adelaide at $1:68

OK I’ll ask:

Why does North Melbourne get No Respect

More to the point at Etihad why is Port Adelaide off a loss to Geelong at home so short against the Roos after their smashing of Hawthorn there?

I’m always looking for a one round over-reaction, but the previous week North thrashed Carlton while the Power lost to Essendon at… Etihad

Again the Roos only have to look a solid winning chance at some stage during the game to give us a chance of trading out.

I really like that chance of happening from a Probability perspective 

Best of luck


“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz’s independent horseracing analysis service is and you can join Crawf and Hirdy for lunch at Crown on Friday May 11 with Ralphy via “Events” on his website

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