Probabilities Week 9

Each week Ralphy will look at the AFL betting markets and combine where he sees some value and/or trading opportunities for having a punt, with the AFL insights that Shane and James provide in their tipping on the podcast.

He will outlay a total of $20 on any game that he likes, and at the end of the year any/all profit will be donated to charities that we choose to.

We underline:

a/ We are independent of any wagering company association

b/ We are providing ideas not investment advice.

c/ We hope you don’t outlay at all if you can’t afford to lose, and whatever you do outlay urge that you do so responsibly and within your means (hence the small $20 outlays)

Probabilities Week 9

Back in my (late teens/early 20’s) days as a tradie (late 80s/early 90s) an RDO was a thing of beauty, and the only thing better than having every 4th Monday off while everyone else was keeping the world spinning, was having every 2nd Monday off if you were lucky enough to work on a “36 hour” building site.

The Melbourne Sunday trifecta of the Geebung in Hawthorn, Depot in Richmond and Star Bar in South Melbourne was carefree with no concern about sleeping in.

Fast forward to 2018 and the Probabilities column RDO on the Crawf and Hirdy’s website conversely was no “ting of beauty” but was due to a Round 7 wipe-out that had me walking around with a paper bag on my head like Sylvester the putty tat’s son from the old Warner Bros cartoons, saying “Oh the Shame of it all

The Dockers didn’t turn up at all against Richmond, but with the Lions narrow defeat to the visiting Pies, my one thing to hang my hat on, was late in the game I went to trade out with Collingwood $1:90 as Brisbane looked a big chance of an upset, but alas couldn’t get through on the phone to Betfair.

The law of unintended consequences of not letting Australian punters bet on-line on sporting events in play – presumably for responsible gambling reasons – is that if you want to bet responsibly by laying off/minimizing risk, you often can’t as the phone doesn’t get answered and/or when it does another goal/wicket/basket/putt has occurred and the circumstance and thus the odds has changed.

Anyway that was then and this is now with our scoreboard after 9 rounds being a profit of a princely $5:15.

And in all seriousness as we proudly are independent and have no alignment with any wagering outlet, this proves that the mental challenge of wagering – as opposed to mindless poker machines and lotto products – can be fun with limited downside when sticking to a disciplined approach and budget.

Round 9

1/ Lay Adelaide at $1:34 against the Western Bulldogs

Hirdy thinks the Bulldogs can cause and upset and Crawf is rightly concerned with Adelaide’s mounting injury toll, with this week Walker, McGovern, Brown and Matt Crouch added to the likes of Rory Sloane, while the Bulldogs conversely are strengthened by Roughead, Wood and Trengove returning off the back of three wins in a row,

Yes they’ve only been against the Lions, Suns and Blues, but it equates to momentum, while the Crows narrowly went down to Port in a classic Showdown, the triple query of injuries, 6 day back up off a bruising encounter and let down from the big game has to be there.

We’ll take the odds that the Bulldogs can look a winning chance at some stage and trade out.

2/ Lay Sydney at $1:21

Swans are 1 and 3 at the SCG this year. Is this a pattern? Unfortunately the Dockers are 1 and 3 away including their last feeble start against the Tigers at the MCG that had them out of play at quarter time, so it’s hard to be overly confident on the first query.

However let’s look at both Richmond’s awesome “reigning premier” form, and the “mean reversion” of a Ross Lyon side coming to play this time off an easy win over St Kilda with Fyfe in freaky good form.

If they do, then surely in what is a near certain low scoring contested ball scrap, they’ll look a genuine winning chance at some stage and we can trade out for profit.

Freshened up after a week off, I like both those scenarios from a Probabilities perspective.


“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz has the independent horseracing website with a special offer for his full Flemington analysis Saturday. Details to be explained via the free newsletter to registered customers 

Close Menu