Probabilities with Ralph Week 4

Each week Ralphy will look at the AFL betting markets and combine where he sees some value and/or trading opportunities for having a punt, with the AFL insights that Shane and James provide in their tipping on the podcast.

He will outlay a total of $20 on any game that he likes, and at the end of the year any/all profit will be donated to charities that we choose to.

We underline:

a/ We are independent of any wagering company association

b/ We are providing ideas not investment advice.

c/ We hope you don’t outlay at all if you can’t afford to lose, and whatever you do outlay urge that you do so responsibly and within your means (hence the small $20 outlays)


Probabilities with Ralph Week 4

We report a profit last week of a mind-blowing $4:70 – a large cup of coffee! – with a win in the Carlton trade to beat Collingwood and a small loss on the Saints to beat Adelaide.

In the first game as you can see we laid Collingwood risking $21 to possibly win $35…

And then I got the (in hindsight) dream result by trading at the top of the market when Casboult goaled to put the Blues 19 to nil up after 14 minutes with $25 on Collingwood at $2:22 to win $30:50 making it a $10 profit if Carlton won, or a $9:50 result for the Pies. (Note the screenshot was after Hoskin-Elliott for Collingwood kicked a goal and the odds moved to $1:96)

Match 1 profit $9:50

On Saturday night I had $19:20 against the Crows to possibly win $48:00 expecting St Kilda to rebound hard after their Good Friday embarrassment against the Roos. We need to underline this doesn’t mean I expected them to win, only that they’d really take the game up to Adelaide and get those who took short odds to get nervous and trade against them…

However we got… we got… let’s just say when my wife asked “how much longer do we have to watch this?” we were on the same page for different reasons. (Her to put a movie on/me to stop watching an under-performing footy team that was threatening my 20 bucks!)

So in simple terms at the half way mark of the 2nd quarter I locked in losing $4:80 by backing the Crows at $1:30, instead of risking losing the whole $19:20 given how bad they were playing.

Hirdy the stock man called it “sunk cost”

Match 2 loss $4:80

Round 3 profit $4:70

Year to date: -$1:30

That was then this is now:

1/ Lay GWS at $1:15

Fremantle have played good footy over the past two weeks – albeit at home – over Essendon and the Suns, but importantly up to their JLT Series form that suggested coach Ross Lyon with Sandilands and Fyfe playing good footy again had his team where he wanted them.

GWS lost a cracking game against Sydney, but one they no doubt  got themselves up for as cross-town rivals after narrowly beating Collingwood.

While we’ll always respect the genuine advantage home game footy is, “everything has a price” and the Dockers are very inviting now. 

Remember the equation is “will Fremantle look a winning chance at any stage during this game?” and with their coach’s defensive mindset a half time scoreboard of “a few goals each” will make those who took the “Winx odds” get very nervous. (Hopefully!)

And we’ll lock in profits if that occurs

2/ Back Geelong at the Line of +29 points

With due respect to the legends I’m working with, if I lose my money, it’s going to be my call not theirs as I’d rather get my own opinion wrong!

Crawf is big on the Saints rebounding as a club this week, but my phrase is “always keep your hand on the data” (OK it’s not mine as I read it somewhere but I like it!) and I can’t see one genuine shred of evidence that says St Kilda is playing good enough footy to challenge Geelong at home.

The Cats beat Melbourne and just lost to Hawthorn – each game could have gone either way but they were both high class performances – before running out of players/legs against the Eagles last Sunday with the home crowd and Nic Nat lifting them over the line.

While the Cats lose players to injuries, it is something Chris Scott has been able to spend all week planning for, so providing they have ordinary luck during the game this week, there’s every incentive to win and win big getting back to 2 and 2 and up their percentage in front of the Kardinia Park (Ok GMHBA Stadium) crowd.

Is it more or less likely that Geelong will have a big win from a 50/50 perspective? 

I say it’s much more likely to be a big win (5 goals+) from a Probability perspective 

Best of luck


“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz’s independent horseracing analysis service is and you can join Crawf and Hirdy for lunch at Crown on Friday May 11 with Ralphy via “Events” on his website

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