Probabilities with Ralph Week 2

Probabilities with Ralph Week 2

Each week Ralphy will look at the AFL betting markets and combine where he sees some value and/or trading opportunities for having a punt, with the AFL insights that Shane and James provide in their tipping on the podcast.

He will outlay a total of $20 on any game that he likes, and at the end of the year any/all profit will be donated to charities that we choose to.

We underline:

a/ We are independent of any wagering company association

b/ We are providing ideas not investment advice.

c/ We hope you don’t outlay at all if you can’t afford to lose, and whatever you do outlay urge that you do so responsibly and within your means (hence the small $20 outlays)

Probabilities with Ralph Week 2

Nearly started the year with the first serious injury for the pod, as the head almost wobbled off when the lay of Richmond was going to plan after the Blues kicked the first 5 goals of the game and the $1:21 on the Tigers was making plenty who took the short odds either queasy, or looking to lay off. 

Unfortunately the quirk of Australian betting laws means you can’t put a bet on electronically once a match has started, so in gambling responsibly and looking to arbitrage, I’m on the phone trying to get through, while Richmond back clawed two goals and of course their odds shortened.

As you can see below I still put myself in a position not to lose – protecting capital is always the most important thing – but in not laying Carlton enough I had an imbalanced result of either +$4 win for Richmond or a +$72:50 win for Carlton, instead of taking advantage of being able to stake for around a +$30 profit either way with such a “dream” start for an in play trade against a hot favourite.

Which was “double pain” the next day when Fremantle didn’t take their chances early against Port Adelaide and the $20 was electronic confetti with no real opportunity to trade out

Week 1 $4 win and $20 loss = $16 loss

That was then. This is now

My Round 2 mindset is:

1/ The market always overreacts week to week, but particularly round 1 “assuming” a pattern has been seen when it’s only 1 game. (Nassim Taleb Fooled by Randomness? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness)

2/ Keeping in mind the importance of home grounds, cohesion and what it means a week later

Combined with the expertise of the legends who have played that I work with.

1/ Lay Adelaide at $1:74

Crawf was concerned about how Adelaide leaked goals late against Essendon, and were impressed by Richmond’s composure against the Blues when trailing early. Hirdy said the Tigers are now playing with the belief of the premiership team they now are. Yes the Crows are back at home, but the swing to them is savage from that sole factor. Remember Richmond don’t have to win – that would be nice – but they just have to look like they’re going to win at some stage in the match to provide an ability to take profits. Walker in for the Crows, but Houli in for the Tigers is also important. 

2/ Lay Essendon at $1:60

The market seems “convinced” Essendon’s win was “real” but there’s two things to consider: A/ As mentioned Crawf had concerns over the Crows lack of structure in the last quarter. That’s not knocking the Bombers performance, but simply putting a query on how much they were “allowed” to storm home from behind. Secondly they go from their loud and loyal supporters cheering them home at Etihad and now get the Dockers fans shaking the new Optus Stadium which is an obvious total contrast. While the Dockers “cost” us last Saturday in not taking their early chances, there has to be a big chance Port will do that to a lot of sides this year. The Dockers impressed in the JLT series and maybe that’s their “real” form this year? We’re getting a good price to find out with likely further improvement from the elite Fyfe and Sandilands. Again we’re looking to trade out if need be, so the bet is will Fremantle look a winning chance at any stage in the match? I like that from a probability perspective 

Ralphy

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz’s horseracing analysis service is racetrackralphy.com.au

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