Probabilities with Ralph Week 3

Each week Ralphy will look at the AFL betting markets and combine where he sees some value and/or trading opportunities for having a punt, with the AFL insights that Shane and James provide in their tipping on the podcast.

He will outlay a total of $20 on any game that he likes, and at the end of the year any/all profit will be donated to charities that we choose to.

We underline:

a/ We are independent of any wagering company association

b/ We are providing ideas not investment advice.

c/ We hope you don’t outlay at all if you can’t afford to lose, and whatever you do outlay urge that you do so responsibly and within your means (hence the small $20 outlays)


Probabilities with Ralph Week 3

Week 2 done and we can proudly boast a “double double green”. 

That is in both games, we had both teams running for a profit or “green” results on the Betfair screens. 

Firstly in Richmond and Adelaide I got to sit back and not have to worry about trading during the game, as the odds firmed for Richmond after I put the bet on and before the match had started. 

While the competitor in me wanted to see if we would be right during the game, the brief here is enjoying the punt for a small amount, taking profits and gambling responsibly and within our means.

So as you can see below, my $20 outlay became a $2 profit when I cashed out pre-game.

Of course the profit is “half a cup of coffee” but it also became a guaranteed 10% profit either way, and try getting that at your local bank branch over the course of a year as opposed to a day!

With the Dockers and Bombers I said to Hirdy both privately and on the pod that this game is an example of being amazed that I can’t believe the stress this $20 outlay is causing me! (And to back the truck over what we’re doing here, I’m referring to “fun stress” of getting it right, not stress in possibly losing 20 bucks. If it’s not fun and you can’t afford to “set fire” to it, please don’t bet any amount.)

Both Crawf and Hirdy – who had his own stress of going against his beloved Bombers with the head over the heart – liked the Dockers at home, and as you can read on last week’s blog while I was ready to trade out, I also was prepared to let it run if Fremantle got the jump on Essendon and looked a chance of running away when Fyfe made it 3 goals to 1 at the 12 minute mark.

I could have traded out then and there.

But didn’t.

And the Bombers kicked the next three goals and I was sick!

When Fremantle rallied to get on top by half time I took my cue and traded to either an $8 profit with the home side or $2 profit with Essendon.

Yes Fremantle won and we could have profited more, but the brief here is to “protect capital” when possible and we did

Week 1 – $16

Week 2 +10

That was then this is now:

1/ Lay Collingwood at $1:60

There’s a big factor here outside of the likelihood at time of writing of Matthew Kreuzer returning and Darcy Moore definitely missing.

Market overreaction to Round 2.

This game would have been a 50/50 bet after Round 1 when Carlton ran right up to the reigning premier Richmond for most of the game and Collingwood was thoroughly out-played by Hawthorn.

Carlton without Kreuzer was poor against the Gold Coast, and the Pies played out of their skin against GWS.

So which week is “real”?

Crawf and Hirdy have both liked what Bolton has done at Carlton to date, but James made the point that he’ll tighten up back to more of the defence mindset/structure that he had in his first two years, compared to more open first two weeks this season.

That makes it a big chance of a low scoring game and particularly so early.

If that occurs, the market will swing to more of a 50/50 set up that it would have been had this been a round 2 match.

And if it does I’ll be trading out and taking profits!

2/ Lay Adelaide $1:40

This is absolutely a trading set up as I’m with the “crowd” in expecting the Crows to be too good for St Kilda.

However let’s look at two key areas for whether the Saints can “look” like winning to give us the chance to trade out

1/ They remain at home after rightly being embarrassed by how they played against the Kangas on Good Friday and have virtually no injuries. This means they can rebound to their very best, and their young list and their coach are absolutely in this together with questions/heat now on both.

2/ The Crows return to Etihad where they were poor late against Essendon, after beating Richmond at home. As I put to Hirdy on the preview podcast this week and he agreed using Brisbane in 2002 as an example, while Adelaide will intend to treat every game as “just worth 4 points” they had all summer – including their now controversial camp – to focus on Richmond in Round 2. 

Job done. Is there a chance of a let down even if it’s slight and at the start of the game?

And psychology aside, the reality of injuries with now Matt Crouch joining his brother as missing and others under fitness queries have to also be factors to consider.

James thought that St Kilda should come out of the blocks, before the class of the Crows will ultimately take hold of the game.

If that occurs, I’ll be delighted as the odds will tighten for the home side early in the game and we can take profits

That appeals from a probability perspective 

Best of luck!


“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz’s independent horseracing analysis service is

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