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Probabilities Week 10

Bob Dylan trading

So last week I’m writing up horseracing form up for Royal Sandown – racetrackralphy.com.au – Friday night footy is on the plasma or whatever the TV is made of nowadays – I’m right across how to work the remote and that’s about it when it comes to tech knowledge – the kids are upstairs watching a movie, my wife’s is out, I’m having “Ralph time” solo having laid Collingwood for the column at $1:45, and with the Bulldogs up 32 to 7 at quarter time, life is good.

Such was their dominance, I reluctantly bet back on Collingwood for a small amount, as they didn’t even look close and a blow out looked a realistic chance

Under the above set up if the Western Bulldogs won we win $54 and if the PIes “somehow” got up, we lose $4:20.

But that wasn’t going to happen…

Or was it? 

Remember the original price of Collingwood winning THE WHOLE MATCH was $1:45, so while an upset was definitely on the cards early in the 2nd quarter, from a trading perspective/mindset you had to keep in mind that the collective intelligence of the betting market (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd) was that it was more than twice as likely Collingwood winning as the Bulldogs winning the game.

So at half time Bob Dylan thinking kicked in.

Ask yourself “How does it feel?” or to be more accurate “How will it feel?” if a trade goes wrong.

As you can see after I got VERY happy with myself in this space with a big lead after Round 7, I’d come off two wipeouts and they of course happen in wagering. 

How did I feel after those two losing rounds? Apart from obviously being disappointed in the outcome, I actually wasn’t in the thinking. Both roughies last week as outlined got a stack of the ball and simply butchered it giving them – and us – no chance of a result.

This time it was different.

The opportunity TO NOT LOSE NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENED WAS THERE so “how I would feel if the Pies got up?” 

I would have been in a word… crap.

So at half time still thinking the Bulldogs would win, I laid off a bit more and it was Bulldogs +$47:00 if they won, and +$10:20 for the Pies if they won, which of course was our result.

Round 10 profit: $10:20

Year to Date: -$24:75

That was then this is now

Round 10:

Lay Kangaroos $40 at $1:29

While most tempted to lay the mighty Demons at $1:23 as off the Alice Springs trip with a 6 day back up against the Bulldogs at their home off an 8 day, the “How would I feel?” kicks in.

If Melbourne kicked the first 4 and held or extended the margin from there with no opportunity to trade I’d feel sick!

So just the one trade this week and we’re working on the Brisbane Lions taking it right up to the Kangaroos for the following reasons:

# They’ve one won game for the year, yet have played well 9 times

# Outside of last week in the very wet conditions they score well with three previous scores of 129, 93, 114

# The Kangas have had a very tough month. Tough tight games against Sydney and Richmond, travel south to Tassie and a return from Perth 

That doesn’t mean North Melbourne will lose, but will they look vulnerable during the game against the young Lions? I like that from a probability perspective 

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz has the independent horseracing website racetrackralphy.com.au with a his full Moonee Valley runner by runner analysis available Saturday morning from 8:30am.