Probabilities Week 11

Each week Ralphy will look at the AFL betting markets and combine where he sees some value and/or trading opportunities for having a punt, with the AFL insights that Shane and James provide in their tipping on the podcast.He will outlay a total of $20 on any game that he likes, and at the end of the year any/all profit will be donated to charities that we choose to.

We underline:

a/ We are independent of any wagering company association

b/ We are providing ideas not investment advice.

c/ We hope you don’t outlay at all if you can’t afford to lose, and whatever you do outlay urge that you do so responsibly and within your means (hence the small $20 outlays)

Probabilities Week 11

Last week we looked for a competitive performance from the Lions against the Kangas and instead they were blown off the park early and the stake was toast.

To rub salt into the wound, the trade I was tempted to make but didn’t was the Dogs v the Dees, and there was a winning result that went begging after they kicked the first 3 goals.

So “Hindsight Harry” was it was silly putting all eggs in the one basket on a spec bet given the Roos were $1:29

And I must pay a penalty which this week of course can only be:

Year to date: -$64:75

Charity donation: $100

Round 11

OK let’s get away from the “penny dreadfuls” and have good sides playing for us even though they’re both away from home

There’s been a massive overreaction to Dusty Martin missing from a market perspective for mine.

We’ll lay Port Adelaide at $1:75 for $20 on the basis that at some stage 2nd placed Richmond will look a winning chance over the 8th placed side and trade out, and Geelong for $20 at $1:45 against the Roos. Both come off easy wins against Queensland sides, but Geelong were poor the week before at home to Carlton.

If they play like that, they’ll be plenty of chances to trade out and I like that from a probability perspective 

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz has the independent horseracing website with a his full Flemington runner by runner analysis available Saturday morning from 8:30am.  

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